确保新丝绸之路的安全

Securing the New Silk Road

中国重燃雄心,决意沿着丝绸之路的不同分支大力发展贸易,这就带来了一系列全新的传统及非传统安全挑战,中国政府誓言用崭新的安全观应对这些挑战。然而,这些观念无助于促进中国的安全利益。在解决不同安全利益的矛盾方面,中国面临诸多挑战和机遇:对繁荣的追求与安全的维护、经济雄心的必然结果是成为世界最大的经济体、和平崛起与两岸统一和收复失地、外交政策指导思想面临困境。中欧之间的安全合作前景不容乐观。中国安全思维所面临的困境或矛盾,使欧洲面临三大不确定性:太平洋的紧张局势将如何发展?中国将如何捍卫其在新丝绸之路上的利益?太平洋的紧张局势将如何影响中国在欧亚非交汇处的行动?这些不确定性也给欧洲新增了两大战略选择:一是继续与中国在丝绸之路上合作与较量;二是把充满巨大挑战的欧亚非交汇处以及欧洲的近邻作为优先考虑的选项,并接受美国邀请,加入其重返太平洋地区的行动。虽然中国欲与丝绸之路另一端的欧盟建立有意义的合作,以便最终实现责任分担,但前路必将困难重重。

The renewed Chinese ambitions to develop trade along the different branches of the Silk Road bring several new traditional and non-traditional security challenges. The Chinese government has vowed to address them with new security concepts. Yet, these concepts might not be adequate to advance China's security interests. Moreover, China seems to have difficulties overcoming the contradictions between different security interests: the quest for prosperity and the safeguarding of security; China's economic aspirations and their consequence of becoming the largest economy; peaceful development and unification with Taiwan and the regain of lost territories; and the dilemma in the guiding diplomatic principles. As a result of these contradictions, Europe faces three uncertainties: How will the tensions in the Pacific develop? How will China seek to defend its interests along the New Silk Road? How will the tensions in the Pacific affect China's behaviour in the common Eurafrasian interface? These uncertainties bring about two more strategic choices for Europe: trying to continue its work with China along the Silk Road and balancing; prioritizing the huge challenges in the wedge of hardship and Europe's immediate neighbourhood and responding calls to join the United States in its rebalancing to the Pacific. This will make it difficult to establish meaningful cooperation and to work towards burden sharing with the European Union at the other end of the Silk Road.