不扩散全球治理:现实主义视角

Global Governance on the Non-proliferation: A Realistic Perspective

在全球化时代,民族国家奉行主权防务的传统没有改变。基于现实主义的视角,所有大规模毁伤性武器的扩散主要都有安全动因的驱动,解决扩散问题必须提供可信的替代安全产品,集体防御以及合作安全都具有这种功效。霸权可能导致一时的稳定,但更会引起大规模毁伤性武器扩散所带来的长期性的不稳定。同时,扩散不仅容易产生地区失稳,它也不无平衡霸权从而产生新的稳定。然而所有个体的理性,未必保证系统的整体理性。在平衡国家安全和国际安全之间,经由全球治理来交换国家安全利益从而促使人类社会分享更为普遍的安全,乃是一种更为理想的出路。

Despite globalization, the tradition of nation-state toward sovereign defense has never changed. Through the realism perspective, all cases of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction(WMDs) are mainly driven by security motivation. Offering credible alternative security mode shall help address this issue, and collective defense and cooperative security are viable choices. Hegemony could lead to temporary stability but more likely, long-term instability since it tends to induce WMD proliferation. Meantime, proliferation could both undermine regional stability, and it is not unlikely that proliferation would also balance hegemony which in turn generates new stability. However, individual rationality doesn't necessarily assure collective rationality of a system. Between national security and international security, it is more ideal to trade national security interests through global governance, so as to promote human society sharing more pervasive security.