美国量化宽松货币政策对中国行业出口的溢出效应研究

Research on the Spillover Effects of the U.S. Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China's Export in Different Industries

货币政策的国际溢出效应一直是开放经济学领域关注的热点问题。在美国逐步退出量化宽松货币政策的背景下,研究美国货币政策对中国出口的溢出效应具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文采用2009年6月至2013年12月中国行业层面的出口数据,运用SVAR模型分析发现,美国量化宽松货币政策对中国出口整体上表现为"以邻为壑"效应,但对不同行业的影响存在很大差异,对于低技术行业有微弱的正向溢出效应,对中高技术行业有一定程度的负向溢出效应。方差分解结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策对于非金属矿物制品、金属制品、机械设备制造等行业的出口波动具有一定的解释力。因此,为应对美国退出量化宽松货币政策可能带来的风险,应当重点关注这些行业的出口波动。

The spillover effects of monetary policies have always been the hot topics in the field of open economy macroeconomics. It has significant theoretical and practical implications to analyze the impact of U.S. monetary policy on China＇s export since the Federal Reserve began to withdraw from the Quantitative Easing Policy. Using a SVAR model and utilizing China＇s industry-level export data for the period from June 2009 to December 2013, this paper finds that the U.S. Quantitative Easing Policy has broad beggar-thy-neighbor effect on China＇s exports, but exerts different influence on different industries. Specifically, it has weak positive spillover effects on low technology industries, while has strong nega- tive spillover effects on high technology industries. Variance decomposition analyses indicate that the U.S. Quantitative Easing Policy has a certain impact on the fluctuations of export in nonmetallic mineral products industry, metal products industry and machinery and equipment products industry. Therefore, the results suggest that in order to control the risk of the U.S. Quantitative Easing Policy, different policies should be made for different industries separately, especially for thesensitive industries.