扩展三元悖论视角下的印度汇率制度改革对中国的启示

Revelation of India's Exchange Rate System Reform to China——From the Perspective of the Extended Trilemma

本文从扩展三元悖论的视角,对中国与印度在三元悖论中的政策组合进行系统的实证研究与比较分析。结果表明,中国的汇率稳定指数在政策组合中最显著,而印度则往三元的中间区域发展。在此基础上,本文进一步从汇率稳定性与汇率制度改革成效两个视角分析印度汇率制度改革,认为印度汇率制度改革对中国的启示在于,印度在资本项目开放与汇率制度改革的先后顺序安排、汇率弹性与稳定性的管理、外汇储备规模的控制以及平衡汇率稳定性与资本账户开放等方面。

From the perspective of extended financial trilemma, this paper carries on a quantitative analysis of trilemma policy choices and compares the trade-off confronted by China and India. The results of the empirical study show that China＇ s trilemma configuration is different from India＇ s. The former features the predominance of exchange rate stability, while the latter concentrates on the intermediate area among the objectives in the trilemma, which means to attain considerable level of capital account liberalization with the exchange rate stability mitigated by considerable foreign exchange reserves. Based on the study above, the paper discusses the effectiveness of India＇s exchange rate system reform. It seems that the experiences and lessons of India＇s reform in deciding the order of financial integration and the arrangement of exchange rate system, managing the stability and elasticity of exchange rate, controlling the size of foreign exchange reserves and balancing the weight of exchange rate stability and capital account liberalization, is of great significance for China＇s exchange rate arrangement.