规范变迁与身份再造:主权零死亡时代大国崛起战略之路径重构

Norm Transition and Identity Recreate:Reconstruct the Rising Strategy Path in No Sovereign-Death Era

在体系规范进化的主权国家零死亡时代,崛起国奉行"安全搭车与推责"的"联系性崛起战略"较奉行传统的"安全自助"的"变位性崛起战略"要面临更小的结构压力与冲突风险。单纯比较崛起国与霸权国二者权力位差的误区在于,它从根本上忽略了崛起国需要面对整个霸权国的全球联盟体系以及只有高出社会基本需求的人均国内生产总值部分才是真正衡量超级大国间潜在资源转化能力的根本要素这两大基本事实,这也是崛起进程中崛起国学者提出放弃"韬光养晦"转向激进外交政策的根源。在全球化时代,海权战略应服从于国家崛起的整体战略,海权所承载的更多的是"海运"而非海军。大国崛起应是一个水到渠成、实至名归的过程。

In the contemporary age, 'no sovereign death' has evolved as a norm,with emerging powers opting for 'relational strategies of rising' that are characterized by 'security free riding and shirking of responsibilities.' Compared with traditional strategic approaches such as 'security self-reliance' and 'displacement of other powers,' these approaches face less structural resistance and less chance of creating conflict.The key error associated with the simplistic comparison of the power gap between a rising state and a hegemonic state is that it fundamentally overlooks the reality that a rising power must face an entire global alliance system.It is this realization that explains why scholars have,in the course of China's rise,started to advocate abandoning Deng Xiaoping's principle of 'avoiding the limelight' and called for China to take a more active role in its foreign policy.In this era of globalization,sea power strategy should serve the broader strategy of a state's rise,with its emphasis properly on navigation and transportation rather than naval affairs.The process of a state rising should be a matter of course that happens in due time.