中等收入陷阱与结构转型方向:国别(地区)结构趋同与政策协同

Middle Income Trap and Direction of Structure Upgrading:Structural Convergence and Policy Coordination

在总结近年来国内外有关中等收入陷阱研究的基础上,提出了我国未来经济结构转型的林德消费结构升级、雷布斯基要素结构升级与克鲁格曼本国市场效应升级三大方向。并结合我国出口结构的国别趋同经验,讨论了和我国关系密切的发达国家与发展中国家对我国经济结构转型的示范作用,我国需要同时注重追赶发达国家与发展中国家对我国的赶超效应。在培育新型比较优势,应对中等收入陷阱的挑战中,我国需要通过注重知识产权保护的国际协调,保护我国的新兴自主知识产权丰富的技术型成长企业;在经贸政策中注重对最终产品的税收减免与减让,引导居民消费高质化本地化;在分配政策上注重对劳动力的保护与发挥其他要素的有利作用,统筹分配要素报酬,保证效率兼顾公平的情况下推动通过劳动回报提升带来收入提升,实现在中远期我国居民跨越中等收入进入高收入国家的目标。

The growth rate of China＇s economy slowdown to middle-high speed growth, along with risk of the demographic structure change and limited social mobility and a weak foreign demand. Whether China could handle this challenge of middle income trap and the implicit risk within it is interesting. We summarize the middle income trap research and found China will prevail in the industry with demand upgrading, endowment upgrading and the home market effect overwhelm. We also provide some evidence about the convergence of countries and showing that china should put more efforts to improve its IPR protection and reduce the tax in consumption and raise the income of low-skill labors to ensure a long-run sustainable growth.