保险需求的非线性收入效应与收入差距--基于PSTR模型的实证研究

The Nonlinear Income-effect of Insurance Demand and Income Disparity

基于非一致风险偏好现象对微观个体保险购买意愿的作用,本文从宏观理论层面阐述了收入差距影响保险需求收入效应的内在机理,并利用面板平滑转换回归方法和OECD 29个国家(和地区)1990-2012年的数据,建立多个模型实证检验了收入差距与保险需求收入效应的非线性关系。实证结果表明:收入差距轻微增加对保险需求收入效应影响不确定,但当收入差距扩大到一定程度时,无论是寿险还是财险的需求,其收入效应都会削弱。这表明,过大的收入差距对保险业的发展是十分不利的。文章最后指出:保险业的发展水平体现了社会公平程度,发达的保险业是社会高度均富的重要标志。

By noticing that inconsistent risk preference would impose an individual consumption propensity to insurance,we show how inequality would affect the income-effect of insurance demand from the macro aspect.With panel data from the 29 countries and regions of OECD,and by using the approach of PSTR（ Panel Smoothing Transition Regression）,we construct several models,in which the dependent variable,independent variable and transition variable are respectively insurance premium income,per capita disposable income and income inequality.The empirical results show that although slight inequality exert uncertain effect on insurance demand,severe inequality would surely impair the income-effect of both life insurance and non-life insurance.It concludes that the developmental level of insurance industry reveals the degree of social equality,and advanced insurance industry implies a higher equality of the society.