制造业的国外中间服务投入能否代替中间产品进口？--基于WIOD数据的实证研究

Can Intermediate Service Imports Substitute for Intermediate Product Imports in Manufacturing Industry? An Empirical Research Based on WIOD Data

本文基于国际间投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995-2009年数据,研究国外中间服务投入、国内服务业技术水平对我国制造业中间产品进口的影响。实证结果表明,国外中间服务投入增加和国内服务业技术水平提高及其共同作用都会替代中间产品进口。国外中间服务投入对中间产品进口的实际影响为直接效应和间接效应的总和。直接效应表现为处于价值链高端的发达国家企业通过中间服务输出直接代替中间产品出口;间接效应表现为来自发达国家的中间服务对于国内服务业产生技术溢出,由此促进国内制造业的分工升级,从而减少发展中国家对中间产品的进口依赖。

Based on the database WIOD between 1995 and 2009, this paper focuses on the influence of intermediate service imports and technical level of service sectors on intermediate product imports of manufacturing. The empirical results show that, the intermediate service imports, the technical advance of service sectors and also their combined effect can reduce the intermediate product imports. This paper reveals that there are two ways of intermediate service imports substituting for intermediate product imports. Firstly, the developed countries＇ enterprises which are at the top of value chain replace their Jintermediate product exports with intermediate service exports. Secondly, the technology spillover effect of intermediate service imports from developed countries promotes the upgrading of manufacturing. Thus, the intermediate service imports substitute for the intermediate product imports indirectly.