2011-2012年十堰市外环境中禽流感流行特点与数学模型初探

Study on avian influenza epidemic feature and mathematical model in external environment of Shiyan city during 2011-2012

目的探索外环境中禽流感的流行规律与分布模型,为禽流感的预警与防控提供依据。方法通过Real-time PCR法对2011-2012年所采集的外环境标本的禽流感病毒进行检测,然后以外环境流感病毒A型(Flua A)检出率为样本,通过SPSS 17.0软件中一致性P-P图与非参数1-样本K-S检验等方法进行分析。结果 2011年禽流感H5N1亚型(H5)的检出率为11.97%,禽流感H9N2亚型(H9)检出率为10.68%;2012年H5检出率为5.96%,H9亚型检出率为17.88%;2011年H5与H9流行强度相同,2012年H9明显占据优势(2011年:χ2=0.043,P=0.835>0.05;2012年:χ2=6,P=0.014<0.05);在检测正态分布的P-P图中,数据点在对角线上或接近对角线;一致性P-P图中,数据点均匀地在直线Y=0上下,通过非参数1-样本K-S检验得Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z值为1.048,P=0.222>0.05。结论 2011年H5与H9流行强度相同,2012年H9明显占据优势,外环境中禽流感的检出率按季度似乎(近似)服从正态分布。

Objective The epidemic feature and distribution model was explored for avian influenza in external environment,providing scientific basic for avian influenza early warning,prevention and control. Methods Samples were detected by real time PCR during 2011-2012,then take external environment Flua A as samples,if belong to the model were detected by figure P-P and Nonparametric 1-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov of software SPSS 17. 0. Results The H5 and H9 detection rate are 11. 97% and 10. 68% in 2011,the H5 and H9 detection rate are 5. 967% and 17. 88% in 2012,the epidemic subtype is H5 and H9 in2011,and the H9 subtype is primary subtype in 2012,（ 2011： χ2= 0. 043,P = 0. 835 〉0. 05; 2012： χ2=6,P = 0. 014 〈0. 05）; In figure P-P of detecting Gaussian distribution,the data dot is in the diagonal line or near the diagonal line,in coincidence figure P-P,the data dot is next line Y = 0 uniformly,the Nonparametric 1-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z value is 1. 048,P = 0. 222 〉0. 05. Conclusions The epidemic subtype is H5 and H9 in 2011,and the H9 subtype is primary subtype in 2012,the detection rate of avian influenza in external environment obeys Gaussian distribution.