宏观经济波动对企业生存绩效的影响:顺周期效应考察

Whether the Survival Performance of New Firms Cause Procyclicality: An Empirical Analysis Based on Manufacturing Industry in Guangzhou

利用1999—2010年广州市新成立制造业企业数据,运用事件史分析方法考察宏观经济波动对企业生存绩效的影响。同时,采用非参数模型KM模型比较不同类型企业的生存状况,选择半参数模型Cox比例风险模型探究企业生存绩效的顺周期效应,使用加速失效时间模型检验了Cox比例风险模型估计结果的稳健性。研究结果表明:企业生存绩效经历了顺周期效应;资金技术密集型企业生存绩效好于劳动密集型企业,但更易受到宏观经济波动的影响;外资企业较内资企业面临更高的死亡风险,且对宏观经济波动反应更敏感。

The paper investigates how macroeconomic fluctuations influences survival performance of new firms. Based on History analysis, this study then conducts an empirical analysis on the survival status of new manufacturing firms in Guangzhou from 1999 to 2010. Using KM model to compare the survival performance of different types of finns and cox proportional hazard model to explore the pro - cyclical effect of survival performance and accelerated failure time model to test the robustness of results. The results show that the survival performance of new firms experiences the pro - cyclical effect ; Capital technology - intensive firms live better than labor - intensive ones, but they are more responsive to macroeconomic fluctuations; Foreign firms have a higher risk of death than domestic ones and are more vulnerable to fluctuations. C