基于Tobit模型的农户信用分析——来自CFPS的证据

Analysis on the Credit of Rural Households Based on Tobit Model——Evidence from CFPS

农户二维信用包括守信意愿和守信能力。基于2011年北京大学公布的中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据,从农户借贷额度视角考察中国农户信用及其影响因素,并采用Tobit模型来研究正规金融机构、亲戚朋友以及民间借贷组织对农户信用评价之间的异质性差异。实证结果表明,从事农业生产的农户比从事非农业生产的农户守信意愿强。家庭财富是农户经营成果的表现,正向影响农户的守信能力。家庭人口特征中的不同因素对农户信用能力也有正负不同的影响。另外,品行和家庭收入对农户信用的影响在正规金融机构中较显著,而教育程度对其信用的影响在亲戚朋友中较显著。

The Two-dimensional credit of rural households includes the willingness and ability of trustworthiness. Thispaper studies the farmer＇s credit and its influencing factors from the perspective of borrowing. This study bases on themicro data of China Family Panel Studies which published by Peking University in 2011 and uses the Tobit model tostudy the difference of farmer＇s credit evaluation between the formal financial institutions, the relatives and friends as wellas the folk lending organizations. The empirical results show that the trustworthy willingness of rural households whoengaged in agricultural production is stronger than those in non-agricultural production. Household wealth is theachievements of rural households in the past, and has a positive relationship with the farmer＇s trustworthy ability. Anddifferent demographic characteristics of the households have different influence on the farmer＇s trustworthy ability. Inaddition, the effects of character and income on farmer＇s credit is significant in the formal financial institutions while theeffects of education is significant in the relatives and friends.