基于灰色理论GM(1,1)模型的企业能耗预测方法与实例研究

A Novel Method Based on GM(1,1)Model for Enterprise Energy Consumption Prediction and Case Study

企业生产过程中影响能源消耗量的因素繁多、影响关系复杂,导致能源预测较为困难。论文引入灰色理论,提出了基于GM(1,1)模型的企业能源消耗预测方法。以某企业历史能耗样本数据为基础,运用GM(1,1)模型,对2014-2020年的企业能耗总量进行了预测和分析。通过对其真实值与预测值相对误差等指标的分析验证,得到2014-2020年的能源需求量。论文提出的能源预测方法可作为评估项目经济效益的依据,为企业生产的有序用能安排提供了较为实用的技术手段。

In the enterprise production process, there exist diverse factors affecting the total energy consumption. The influence relations between the factors are complicated further. Thereby the energy forecasting is a big difficult issue in current enterprises. This paper introduces the grey theory to solve this difficulty. A novel method based on GM（1,1） model for enterprise energy consumption prediction is put forward.The sample data is selected from the historic enterprise energy consumption and then input into the energy consumption prediction model.With this method based on GM（1,1）model, the total energy consumption of enterprises in the duration of 2014-2020 is analyzed and predicted. Further, with the validation of relative error between the real historic energy consumption value and prediction value, the final energy demand is calculated. This novel method for energy consumption prediction proposed in this paper can be used to evaluate the economic benefit for other planned projects in enterprises; simultaneously can act a new technical means for the energy orderly consumption arrangement.