死刑存废的民意维度——以组织卖淫罪可罚性观念的测量为中心

Public Opinion on the Abolition of the Death Penalty:Measurement of the Idea about Inculpation of the Crime of Organizing Prostitution

概率样本数据显示,组织卖淫罪适用死刑的民意支持率极低,这与公共空间所呈现的舆论态势存在较大反差;围绕本罪死刑存废的拉锯过程对进一步推进死刑改革具有重要启示。由政治领袖推动的"突然死亡"式死刑废除模式在我国不具有可行性,而依靠精英话语引导民众支持死刑废除的思路则面临"精英观念缺位"的尴尬。以个罪死刑的民意支持度为依据,逐步废除罪刑失衡的个罪的死刑,是我国死刑改革的必由之路。在这一过程中,要特别防止"沉默的螺旋"等传播现象所导致的"错位民意"对立法与司法的不当影响。以官方人口统计信息为参照获取概率样本,采用匿名电脑调查法和"讲故事法"测量相对敏感的"外指观念",是进行民意测量时可行且有效的方法。

Quantitative research based on probability sampling shows that the imposition of the death penalty on the crime of organizing prostitution enjoys a very low public approval rate, which is in stark contrast to the public opinion appeared in the media and cyberspace. The public debate on the ques- tion of whether to abolish the death penalty is of great importance to the deepening of the reform of the death penalty system. The abolition of the death penalty by way of ＂sudden death＂ led by political leaders is not feasible in China. The abolition of the death penalty by way of increasing public support through elite discourse is also infeasible because of the absence of elite concept in China. The only practical way of reforming the death pena/ty system in China is to abolish the death penalty for specific offences for which the punishment is in the public opinion disproportionate to the crime. In this process, it is very important to prevent ＂false public opinions＂ caused by certain communication phe- nomenon, such as ＂the spiral of silence＂, from exerting improper influence on legislation and the ad- ministration of justice. To ensure the correct direction of the death penalty reform, the empirical re- search method in this field should be improved. The method of combining probability sampling based on related official population-based statistics, anonymous computer-assisted survey and ＂story-telling＂ questioning strategy is feasible and effective in measuring sensitive indicators of oublic opinion.