美国霸权衰落的经济逻辑

The Economic Logic of America's Decline

美国霸权依赖于美国经济全球主导。金融危机后美国经济出现了新的动向,使得美国经济增长面临较为严重的问题。主要包括:美国国内经济失衡局面未能得到有效抑制,暂未找到可信的新动力推动美国经济持续增长;民主制度部分失灵对经济产生负面影响,损害美国的财政健康;冷战后变化了的国际环境导致美国国际经济结盟可能性降低;中国经济发展使美国掌握和动用国际经济资源的能力减弱。美国经济实力在相对下降,新的经济格局初步成形,世界会在相当长的时期处于权力缓慢转移、力量愈发均衡的秩序构建进程当中。

America's hegemony relies heavily on its leadership in the world economy.However,several significant challenges to America's economy have arisen since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007.First,America's structural imbalance in economy has not seen marked improvement yet and there is no reliable driving force to help American economy grow sustainably in the future.Second,the partial decline of effectiveness of political institutions in the U.S.has brought about negative effects on American economy,e.g.gradual weakening of America's fiscal foundation.Third,the possibility for the U.S.to form global economic alliance is diminishing in the era of post cold war and globalization.Fourth,China's growing economic power makes the U.S.more difficult to abuse its economic primacy.Therefore,America's economic power is declining relatively and a new economic world order is coming into being in which power distribution will be more balanced among major economies.