我国食品价格周期波动趋势与宏观政策调整

Cycle Fluctuations Trend and Macro Policy Adjustment in Food Prices in China

本文对2001年以来我国居民食品消费者价格指数(RFCPI)进行趋势周期分解,并基于方差比度量了随机冲击对我国RFCPI波动产生的持久性效应。研究发现我国RFCPI的变动主要受到以需求为代表的确定性趋势影响,周期性因素与随机冲击对RFCPI变动的影响并不大;2001年以来我国RFCPI共经历了两个完整的波动周期,从2013年开始我国RFCPI开始进入第三轮价格上行期;我国RFCPI长期波动中约有30%源于随机冲击,并且这种冲击效应不会随着时间流逝而消失。因此,我国应充分发挥各地区比较优势,特别是充分利用与开发西部地区的资源优势,优化我国食品消费的供给结构、消除食品供给的瓶颈,避免过度依赖市场机制调节,这是控制RFCPI长期上涨态势的治本之策。

This paper applies Beveridge-Nelson decomposition technique to decompose the monthly RFCPI since 2001 and uses the ratio of variance theory to compute the persistent effect of the random shock on China＇s RFCPI fluctuations.The results show that the impact of China＇s RFCPI fluctuations is mainly affected by the deterministic trend such as demand pressures as the representative; since 2001,China＇s RFCPI has gone through two complete cycles and from the beginning of 2013,China＇s RFCPI began to enter the third round of price upward period and 30% of the long-term RFCPI fluctuations is due to the stochastic shock and the impact will not disappear with the passage of time. Therefore,making full use of the area＇s comparative advantage especially the western region＇s resource to optimize the structure of food consumption and eliminate the bottlenecks of food supply; at the same time,optimizing the food supply structure and refraining from excessive reliance on market adjustment mechanism is the fundamental method to avoid China＇s RFCPI long-term rise.