引入社会责任的上市公司财务困境预测模型研究

Research on Financial Crisis Prediction Model based on Social Responsibility

本文以2014年首次被ST的31家上市公司和对应的31家非ST公司为研究样本,引入企业社会责任指标重新构建企业财务困境预测的Logistic回归模型,通过对样本的检验表明预测模型的准确度得到显著提高;研究显示企业履行社会责任情况与财务困境发展概率成反比,且企业的成长能力与其发生财务困境的概率正相关,所以企业的成长速度也应适当。

Taking 31 ST listed companies in 2014 for the first time and the corresponding non-ST companies as samples,the paper rebuilds Logistic regression model of corporate financial crisis prediction by introducing a corporate social responsibility index. The sample inspection shows that the accuracy of the prediction model is increased significantly,the situation of enterprises fulfilling social responsibility is inversely proportional to the probability of financial crisis development; meanwhile,the study also shows the ability to grow and the probability of its occurrence of financial distress are related businesses,so companies should also be appropriate growth rate.