丰裕中贫困、选择性贫困抑或是持久性贫困——农村地区消费动机强度日渐趋弱的致因分析

Affluent Poverty,Selective Poverty or Persistent Poverty: Gradually Weakening Cause on Consumer Motivation Intensity in Rural Area

农村消费需求不足和消费动机偏弱已成为影响中国经济平稳较快发展的"瓶颈",按照农村地区消费支出识别贫困家庭的标准进而确定贫困家庭是何种类型——丰裕中贫困、选择性贫困抑或是持久性贫困。结合贫困理论与消费理论对农村消费动机强度日渐衰弱趋势的致因进行研究,并从HF假说的视角切入,利用1989—2009年CHNS农村微观截面数据和时间序列数据进行经验分析。结果显示,由于HF假说而形成的丰裕中贫困和选择性贫困会显著影响到农村地区消费动机强度,持久性贫困并非是其主要影响因素。而整个社会保障制度的缺位是加剧这一格局显著性的致因。因此,应尽快实施和完善农村地区社会保障制度。

China＇s weak rural consumption demand and consumption motivation have already become the ＂bottleneck＂ which influences economic development. According to standard on consumption expendi- ture of rural area to identify poverty family, what the poor family type belongs to？ Does it belong to affluent poverty, selectivity poverty or persistent poverty？ Poverty theory and consumption theory are combined to analyze the reasons on the weakening trend of the consumer motivation intensity in rural area. From the point of view of the HF hypothesis, empirical analysis is made by using CHNS sequence data of rural micro cross section data and time of 1989 - 2009 years. The results show that it will affect consumer motivation in- tensity of rural area significantly due to the formation of affluent poverty and selectivity poverty according to the HF hypothesis, while the persistent poverty is not the main factor. However, the absence of social secu- rity system is intensified this pattern of significant cause. Therefore, the social security system in rural areas should be implemented and perfected as soon as possible.