基于Granger检验的能源消费与经济增长区域差异性研究

Study on Regional Difference in the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Based on Granger Test

本文运用1993-2012年29省市的能源消费和经济增长数据,以能源消费弹性系数的变化规律为依据,将我国的能源——经济区划分为：经济发达区、平稳发展H区、平稳发展L区和飞速发展区四大发展区域。针对四大区域,利用Granger检验法对各区域能源消费与经济增长二者之间的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,经济发达区的能源消费与经济增长不具有长期协整关系,平稳发展H区的能源消费与经济增长具有双向因果关系,平稳发展L区和飞速发展区能源消费与经济增长具有单向因果关系。最后针对以上结论提出了相关建议。

This study employs 29 provincial and municipal energy consumption and economic growth data in 1993-2012,which is based on the variation elastic coefficients of energy consumption,and divides the major energy- economic region in China： developed zone,smooth developing zone H,smooth developing zone L,rapidly developing zone. For the region being divided,Granger test is used to research the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the region. The result proves that energy consumption and economic growth in developed zone does not have a long term cointegration,smooth developing zone H has a two- way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth,smooth developing zone L and rapidly developing zone reach one- way causal relationship to economic growth from energy consumption. Finally for the above conclusion,this paper puts forward relevant recommendations.