中国碳排放与影响因素的实证研究——基于2000～2011年中国以及30个省域的灰色关联分析

An Empirical Study of Chinese Carbon Emissions and Influencing Factors——Grey Correlation Analysis of China and 30 Provincial between 2000 and 2011

碳排放与影响因素的关联程度,决定正确判断和把握低碳经济的发展方向。本文利用灰色系统理论中灰色关联研究方法对比分析了全国和30个省域碳排放与不同影响因素的关联性发现,从全国范围来看,经济增长是导致碳排放增加的主要诱因;从省域角度来分析,经济增长是导致大多数省域碳排放增加的主要诱因;碳排放与能源价格灰色综合关联度都较低;经济发展阶段和经济发展形势不同,碳排放与影响因素的关联性不同,不能采取全国范围内统一的节能减排政策。最后在本文研究结果的基础上探讨了中国未来低碳经济发展的碳减排策略,据此提出针对不同区域特征的低碳对策和建议,以期望能够合理控制影响因素对中国碳排放总量影响。

The correlation of carbon emissions and influencing factors determine correct judge and ensure the direction of development low- carbon economy. In this paper,we analyzed the national and 30 provincial carbon emissions and different influencing factors in relation gray system theory related research methods and found： economic growth is the main cause leading to increased carbon emissions from the national scope; from the provincial perspective,we can see that economic growth is the cause of most provincials major causes of the increase in carbon emissions; carbon emissions and energy prices gray comprehensive correlation of most provinces domain are low. As can be seen in different zoning carbon emissions associated with the influence of different factors,stages of development and different economic situation of economic development,relevance and impact of carbon emission factors,you can not take a unified nationwide energy conservation policy. Finally,it explores the carbon reduction strategies of China＇s future economic development of low- carbon based on the results of this study,low- carbon strategies are accordingly put forward suggestions for the different regions,and expect reasonably to control the impact of factors on China＇s total carbon emissions.