政府支出、房地产投资与经济增长——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Government Spending and Real Estate Investment to Economic Growth Based on Panel Data

现阶段,我国的经济增长是投资拉动的经济增长,忽视了投资过度膨胀的不利影响。本文利用2000~2011年全国31个省区市财政支出、房地产投资和经济增长的有关数据,通过单位根检验和协整检验,建立面板数据模型,以财政支出、房地产投资与经济增长之间的长期稳定关系为研究对象进行实证性分析。研究表明：政府支出与房地产投资对经济增长具有明显的促进作用,政府支出的产出弹性大于房地产投资产出弹性;财政支出与房地产投资对经济增长的影响程度在各个省份之间存在较大的差异。分析结果表明：财政支出和房地产投资的激增导致了经济体中流动性的增加和通胀危险的加剧,而硬化财政预算约束、优化财政支出结构、提高信贷成本、缩小信贷规模是防范这一风险的重要途径。

At this stage,the economic growth of our country is promoted by investments while ignoring the adverse effects of excessive expansion of investments. In this paper we re- investigate the long- run relationship on the effect of government spending and real estate investment to economic growth in different provinces in China,by using the relevant panel data about these variable from 2000 to 2011,based on the panel unit root test and the co- integration test. The evidence shows that the government spending and real estate investment obviously promotes the economic growth,and the input- output elasticity of government spending is higher than that of real estate investment. The two variables impact on economic growth between provinces are different. The result shows that： the surge of fiscal spending and real estate investment leads to increased mobility and increased risk of inflation,and hardening of budget constraints,optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure,increasing the cost of credit,reducing the size of credit are to important ways to prevent the risk.