城市户籍限制的中央最优与地方最优的差异及其调控

The Optimization Differences between Central and Local Government in Urban Household Restrictions and the Regulations

该文通过一个两地区劳动力流动模型,分析得出:城市户籍限制的中央最优值取决于城市区域与城市外部区域间经济异质性上的初始条件;城市户籍限制的中央最优值与地方最优值之间的差距与城市内、外人均公共福利、人力资本回报率的差距正相关,而与城市政府对市民征税水平、城市政府对本地GDP增长的重视程度负相关;如果某城市的上述正相关影响变量值越大,或者负相关影响变量值越小,则其地方政府制定的户籍限制政策越是需要中央政府调控。然后,以上述模型分析为基础,该文通过比较分析中国55个地级以上城市在公共福利、边际拥挤成本和人力资本回报率等项上的指标水平,得出针对不同城市的户籍政策的分类调控建议:认为只有那些人力资本回报率及人口密度均高于平均水平的城市,才有必要保持一定的户籍限制。但建议中央应通过调控来缩小户籍限制的地方最优值与中央最优值的差距;对于其它城市则应取消户籍限制。

Firstly, through a two-region-labor-flow model, this paper found： The central government optimization in urban household restrictions depends on the initial conditions of the economic heterogeneity between urban and outside areas. The optimization differences between central and local government in urban household restrictions are positively correlated with those gaps of per capita public welfare, rate of return on human capital and marginal congestion cost between urban and outside areas, but negatively correlated with revenue level and the attention to local GDP growth of city government. The higher those positive variables, or the lower those negative variables are, the more necessary is the local household policy to be regulated by central government. Then, based on the above model analysis, through comparative analysis of the selected 55 cities at the prefecture level or above in the index level of public welfare, marginal congestion cost and return rate of human capital and other items, we draw classification regulation suggestions on these cities＇ household registration policy： Only for those （ 10 of the 55 cities） who return rate of human capital and population density are both higher than average, it is necessary to keep the household restriction, but central government should reduce the gap between the central and local optimal value of household restriction. The other 45 cities should remove the household restriction between cities.