秦淮河流域汛期气候变化及其对径流的潜在影响

The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in Flood Season in Qinhuai River Basin

采用小波分析法和Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法,分析了1961~2013年秦淮河流域汛期气温和降水序列的趋势和周期变化特征以及2000~2013年流域汛期气温、降水及径流的变化趋势。结果表明,近50多年来秦淮河流域汛期气温和降水都呈上升趋势;但只有气温的M-K检测结果通过了显著性检验,表明汛期气温变化显著,而降水变化不显著。汛期气温存在5、9和15 a的变化周期,汛期降水存在10、14、24 a的变化周期。2000~2013年流域汛期气温、降水和径流呈上升趋势;但其M-K检验结果均未通过显著性检验,表明近10 a来汛期气候变化不显著,且汛期径流变化也不明显。

The trend and periodic change of the temperature and precipitation sequences in flood season during1961 ~ 2013 in Qinhuai river basin,and the trend of the temperature,precipitation and runoff sequences in flood season during 2000 ~ 2013 in the basin,were analyzed by using the methods of the wavelet and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The results showed that the temperature and precipitation of the basin had a increasing trend in flood season nearly 50 years. But only the temperature＇s M-K test results passed by the significance test,which showed that the temperature changed significantly,while the precipitation didn＇t. The periodic oscillation of the temperature in flood season were 5 years,9 years and 15 years; there were periodic oscillation of 10 years,14 years and 24 years for the precipitation. The temperature,precipitation and runoff of the basin showed a increasing trend during 2000 ~2013. But the M-K test results of all were not through the test of significance,which showed that the climate change of the basin in flood season was not significant,and the change of the runoff also was not obvious.