北京市上呼吸道感染与气象环境关系及其冬季天气分型初探

Relationships between upper respiratory tract infections and meteorological environmental conditions in Beijing City and a cluster analysis of weather types in winter

上呼吸道感染(简称上感)是常见的多发病,它与气象、环境(污染)条件密切相关.选取北京市2009年1月1日-2011年12月31日的上感急诊就诊人数资料和同期气象、环境资料,在去除就诊人数资料周末效应的基础上,采用Pearson与Spearman相关分析方法,综合分析了四季中各气象要素和污染物浓度与上呼吸道感染就诊人数的关系,并用聚类分析法对冬季上感多发期的天气形势进行了分型.结果表明:春季上感就诊人数与湿度和降水量呈负相关;夏季就诊人数与平均温度、最低温度呈正相关,与最大风速呈负相关;秋季就诊人数与温度、降水量呈负相关,与3种污染物浓度呈正相关;冬季就诊人数与温度、相对湿度、降水量呈负相关,与气压呈正相关.春、夏、冬3季气象条件对上感发病的影响大于环境条件的影响,秋季环境空气质量的作用大于气象条件的作用.对冬季上感多发期天气分型后发现,降温剧烈、高压、干燥、晴朗、风较大的天气条件下就诊人数最多,处于升温过程、较湿润的天气条件下上感就诊人数最少,可为当地居民相关疾病的预防提供参考依据.

Upper respiratory tract infection （URI） is a frequently-occurring disease, closely related to meteorological and environmental conditions （air pollution）. In order to explore the relationships within URI, meteorological factors and environmental conditions, and classify the weather types corresponding to the peaks of URI incidence in Beijing City, data on URI emergency visits from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011 and daily meteorological and environ-mental observation data were used in this study. After removing the weekend effect of patients number, we analyzed the data using the Pearson or Spearman correlation, and classified the weather types through clustering methodology.The results showed that the emergency visits had a negative correlation with humidity and rainfall in spring. And it had a positive correlation with temperature, but negative correlation with wind speed in summer. In autumn, patients were negatively associated with temperature and precipitation, but positively associated with pollution concentration. In winter, there existed negative correlations between visits and temperature, relative humidity and precipitation, but an opposite correlation with air pressure. The influence of meteorological elements on morbidity is bigger than that of environmental conditions in spring, autumn and winter. But air pollution had more obvious effect in autumn. Warm and moist days could reduce patient number of URI in winter. But if the weather conditions were cold, high-pressured, dry and windy, people might get URI more easily. So this study can provide some references for the prevention of related illnesses for local residents.