北京市大气污染物与呼吸系统疾病入院人数的时间序列

Time-series analysis of the association between outdoor air pollution and emergency room admissions for respiratory diseases in Beijing City

为评价北京市空气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病急诊就诊人数的影响,采用基于时间序列的半参广义相加模型,在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因子等混杂因素的影响后,分析2009-2011年北京市空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病入院人数的暴露—反应关系,并按上呼吸道感染(上感)和下呼吸道感染(下感)分层建立模型.结果表明,污染物有一定的滞后效应,NO_2在当天或滞后2 d,SO_2在滞后2 d,PM_(10)在滞后2 d或4 d使得呼吸系统疾病急诊就诊人数的相对危险度(RR)值达到最大,其中SO2、NO2和PM_(10)浓度每增加10μg/m^3,对应的呼吸系统疾病全人群的RR值及95%置信区间(CI)分别为:1.0114(95%CI:1.0077~1.0183),1.021 3(95%CI:1.0150~1.021 3)和1.011 3(95%CI:1.0049~1.0173).同时还发现,大气污染物对上感的影响比下感明显.

The paper aimed at quantitatively analyzing the acute effects of serious air pollution on hospital emergency room admissions for respiratory diseases in Beijing City. Specifically, a semi-parametric generalized additive model was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollution and daily respiratory hospital emergency room admissions from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing after a control of the long-term trend, the‘day of the week’ effect and the confounding factors of meteorology. At the same time, a model was established based on the upper and lower respiratory tract infections. The results showed that the three kinds of air pollutants all had certain lag effect in which NO2 lagged in one or two days, SO2 lagged in two days, NO2 lagged in two days or lagged in four days. An increased by 10 μg/m^3 in three air pollutants, the relative risks and confidence interval of SO2, NO2, and PM10 were 1.011 4 （95% CI： 1.007 7～1.018 3）, 1.021 3 （95% CI： 1.015 0～1.021 3） and 1.0113 （95% CI： 1.004 9～1.017 3） for all hospital emergency room admissions, respectively. The influence of air pollution on the upper respiratory tract infections was more obvious than lower respiratory tract infections.