印度对华化工产品反倾销的贸易效应分析

Analysis on trade effect of anti-dumping in India to chemical products from China

随着印度对华化工产品反倾销的频发,其所产生的贸易效应越发值得关注。通过构建半对数线性回归方程,以10位编码的化工行业涉案产品的月度数据作为基础进行实证检验,考察不同阶段贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应的存在性及其大小,指出印度对华化工产品采取反倾销措施不仅会对我国产生负的贸易破坏效应,同时会引起竞争国对印出口增加,存在正的贸易转移效应。然而对于不同产品,破坏效应出现的时间和大小是有区别的,贸易转移效应则并非普遍存在。

With the anti-dumping in India to chemical products from China happening frequently,the generated trade effect is more and more worthy of attention. Through the construction of a semi-log linear regression equation and based on the monthly data of the 10-digit coding products involving chemical industry,the empirical test is conducted to inspect the existence and size of trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect in different stages. It is pointed out that the anti-dumping measures in India to the chemical products from China w ill not only make negative trade destruction effects on China,but also cause the exports to India of the competition countries of China to increase,therefore,there is a positive trade diversion effect.How ever,the appearance time and size of destruction effect are distinct for different products,consequently,the trade diversion effects are not ubiquitous.