常减压装置腐蚀速率的灰色组合预测模型

Grey Combining Prediction Model of Corrosion Rate of Grude Oil Distillation Device

石化企业中的炼化装置结构复杂,影响因素众多,设备腐蚀程度难以控制,采用建立腐蚀预测模型的方法成为常减压装置腐蚀研究的新趋势。论文对灰色GM(1,1)模型和神经网络模型进行了分析,在此基础上使用一种复合灰色和神经网络的组合模型对设备腐蚀速率进行预测。实例检验表明,组合模型的预测值比灰色模型更接近实测值,具有推广价值。

Because of complicated petrochemical equipment of petrochemical enterprise and numerous influence factors, it was difficult to control the corrosion degree of device, so it was the new trend that building the prediction model to research the corrosion of grude oil distillation device. The grey GM（1,1） model and neural network model was analyzed, and grey combining model was build. The examined statical data indicated the grey combining model was better than grey model. So the prediction model should be popularized.