影响黑龙江夏季气温的大尺度环流因子分析

Influencing Large-scale Circulation Factor Analysis of Summer Temperature in Heilongjiang Province

利用1954—2012年NCEP/NCAR月再分析资料及黑龙江省15个台站的月气温资料,采用相关分析、趋势分析、合成分析等诊断分析方法,从黑龙江省夏季气温与同期500h Pa高度场、海平面气压场和200h Pa纬向风场的相关图上找出影响黑龙江省夏季气温的关键区域,在此基础上客观定义出关键影响因子和指数。结果表明,乌拉尔山高压、贝加尔湖高压和鄂霍次克海高压,是通过遥相关来影响黑龙江省夏季气温的,而东北冷涡是直接影响因子,东北冷涡指数与夏季气温的相关系数为0.87,距平符号一致率为95%,因此可以认为东北冷涡是影响黑龙江省夏季气温的直接关键因子。另外,北太平洋海平面气压指数和西风切变指数对黑龙江地区夏季气温也有重要影响。结合数值模式预测结果,本研究得到的关键影响因子和指数,可以用于黑龙江省夏季气温的预测。

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed monthly data and monthly temperature from 15 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province from 1954 to 2012 and adopting the methods, such as correlation, trend, composite analysis, the key zones influencing summer temperature of Heilongjiang Province are found from correlogram of summer temperature with 500 h Pa height field and sea level pressure field with 200 h Pa zonal wind field. Based on these key zones, the key factors and indices are objectively defined. The preliminary results of the analysis show that, Ural Mountain high, Baikal Lake high and Okhotsk high influence the temperature through teleconnection, but the impact from northeast cold vortex is direct. Correlation coefficient between northeast cold vortex and summer temperature is 0.87 and the consistent rate is 95%, so we can conclude that northeast cold vortex has influenced the summer temperature directly; in addition, North Pacific sea-level pressure index in summer and westerlies shear index are very important systems influencing the summer temperature. Combination of numerical models output, key factors and indexes of this study can be used to predict the summer temperatures of Heilongjiang Province.