中国环渤海地区城乡发展转型格局测度

The spatial pattern measure of urban-rural development transformation in the Bohai Rim region in China

城乡发展转型是城乡要素转移、战略转变、机制转换的综合人文过程。利用网格和地统计分析方法,揭示了环渤海地区城乡发展转型的中心性、动态性与差异性;利用logistic回归模型,探测了城乡发展转型的空间敏感性。研究表明:1城乡发展转型中心性呈现以中心城市为核心的空间分异格局。平原地区逐渐形成以省会城市为一级集聚中心、地级市为二级集聚中心、县级市及县城镇为三级集聚中心的空间格局,山区城乡发展转型的中心集聚性尚不明显。2城乡发展转型空间拓展呈现"小聚集,大分散"的结构特征。以北京、天津、济南、沈阳、大连、石家庄、青岛为主要城市扩展核心,呈空间聚核模式持续向外蔓延拓展。沿海岸线的"C"型带和港口群区域的土地快速非农化,成为城乡快速转型的热点区。3受点—轴—面区位要素综合影响,城乡发展转型的空间敏感性具有明显的区域差异性,其最佳探测空间尺度为1200 m。4未来城乡发展转型的极强敏感区以北京—天津—滨海新区为轴带,以京津为核心区,以辽东、山东半岛为两翼的环渤海区域经济协同发展格局初步形成。合理有序的城乡空间开发应以城乡发展转型空间中心性、动态性和差异性为依据,科学实施城乡空间优化与差别化管控策略。

Urban-rural development transformation （URDT） is a comprehensive human process of elements transfer, strategy change and mechanism transformation between urban and rural areas in the new period of China. Under the background of coordinated industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization, the investigation of dynamic disciplines and spatial-temporal structure of URDT is of great importance to promote new-type urbanization and coordinated urban-rural development in China. The paper investigates the centrality, dynamics and differences of URDT in the Bohai Rim region by using the gridding and geostatistics methods, and analyzes the spatial sensibility probability of URDT based on the Logistic regression model. The results show that： （1） The centrality of URDT presents spatial difference structure with the central cities at different levels as the nucleus. In the plain areas, super city is the first- class agglomeration center, prefecture cities are the second-class agglomeration center while counties and towns are the third-class agglomeration center. The central agglomeration is not obvious in the mountainous areas. （2） The spatial expansion of URDT presents the feature of “agglomeration at small areas while dispersion at large areas”. With Beijing, Tianjin, Jinan, Shenyang, Dalian, Shijiazhuang and Qingdao as the nucleuses, the urban space expands outwards. Places form as ‘C＇ belt along the coastal lines and the harbors have fast land use conversion. These cities have become hot spots in the region. （3） Influenced by the ＇point-axis- area＇ location elements, the spatial sensibility of URDT is of obvious regional differences and central agglomeration. Its suitable probing scale is 1200 meters. （4） The most sensitive zone of URDT in the future is the belt of Beijing-Tianjin-Binhai region. The new coordinated economic structure in the Bohai Rim region develops with Beijing and Tianjin as the core, and Liaodong Peninsula and Shandong Peninsula as two wings. The Bohai Rim region is the third largest economic zone in China behind the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. Based on the spatial centrality, dynamics and differences, urban- rural space optimization, different management and control measures should be taken to promote rational urban-rural development and layout in the Bohai Rim region in China.