摘要
通过相关性分析确定了影响可燃物含水率变化的气象因子,即之前3h的气温、之前2h的相对温度和之前3h的风速,并建立了分段可燃物含水率预测模型,利用回归分析理论估计出模型的参数,检验结果表明:所建立的模型准确率均达到98%(相对误差小于5%),说明该文所建立的模型对于预测野外细小死可燃物含水率的变化是可行的.
In the paper,meteorological factors which effect on combustible fuel moisture content rate are identified by correspondence analysis. They are temperature 3h before,relative temperature 2 h before and wind speed of 3h before,also set up segmented combustible fuel moisture content prediction model.Estimated the model parameters with regression analysis theory,inspection result indicated: 98% accuracy are available to reached based on established model( relative error less than 5%),this paper shows established model are available for predict wild fine dead fuel moisture content rate.
出处
《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》
CAS
2015年第1期53-56,共4页
Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University
基金
黑龙江省博士后科研启动金资助项目(LBH-Q12175)
关键词
可燃物
含水率
预测
Fuel
Moisture content
Predict