怀化市汛期降水量的灰色拓扑预测

The Grey Topology Prediction of Precipitation during Flood Season in Huaihua City

采用灰色拓扑预测方法,以怀化市1981-2008年汛期降水量（4-9月）数据为基础建立了降水量预测模型,并利用2009-2013年降水数据对模型的预测结果进行了检验,最后对2014-2018年汛期降水量进行了预测。研究表明,灰色拓扑预测方法具有良好的预测效果,其结果可为怀化市汛期降水预报提供借鉴和参考。

Using the grey topology prediction method,the precipitation prediction model was established on the basis of flood season precipitation in Huaihua during 1981-2008（4-9 months）,and the prediction results of the model was tested by using the precipitation data of 2009-2013 years. Finally,the precipitation in flood season during 2014-2018 was forecasted. Research shows that： the grey topological prediction method has good prediction effect,the results can provide the reference for the rainfall forecast in flood season in Huaihua City.