BQ分解在核心通货膨胀中的应用研究

Research on the Application of Blanchard and Quah Decomposition in Core Inflation

文章对Blanchard and Quah趋势分解(BQ分解)在核心通货膨胀中的应用进行了深入的研究,并针对其在应用中所存在的问题提出相应的解决方案。BQ分解是根据菲利普斯曲线理论发展而来的,主要用于对多维变量的趋势分解。研究表明,两维var模型的BQ分解通常是充分可解的。但是多维BQ分解由于自身的结构性原因,并不能保证一定可解出有意义的实数解。文章也证明了文献中所提出为了解决该问题的Cholesky分解,其与BQ分解相互矛盾而不可采用,所以文章推荐采用校准的方法。实证表明,由校准BQ分解所得到的核心通货膨胀完全满足理论和实践对它的要求,能够预测CPI指数的发展趋势,所以作为解决多维BQ分解无法正常求解时的备选方法,校准是一种便捷而有效的方法。

Blanchard and Quah trend decomposition,referred to as the BQ decomposition is further studied in this paper,and the solution to the question discovered in research of core inflation is also proposed in the paper.The BQ decomposition is developed according to the Phillips curve and it is the main method for decomposition of multidimensional variable.Research shows that BQ decomposition in the two dimensional var model is usually sufficiently solvable.Because of its own structural feature,the multidimensional BQ decomposition can not always get meaningful real solution.Cholesky decomposition,as the alternative method to solve this problem,can not be used,because it is contradictory with the identification condition of BQ.Thus,calibration is recommended in the paper.The empirical analysis shows that,core inflation which is obtained from the BQ decomposition with calibration,completely meets the requirements of theory and practice,and it can predict the trend of the development of CPI index,so when the multidimentional BQ decompositionas cannot get the solution,it can be used as the alternative method,it is a simple and effective method.