基于概率推理的不确定性任务分配评价方法

Assessment Method of Uncertain Task Allocation Based on Probabilistic Reasoning

作战任务的分解与分配是指挥决策中的重要过程,随着战场环境复杂度的增加,确定环境下的任务分配方法已不能适应作战需求。针对不确定性任务分配问题,分析作战任务分解、分配和执行过程中的多种不确定性因素,给出相应的形式化描述。在此基础上,提出一种基于概率推理的适应度计算方法,具体分析各种不确定性任务成功执行概率的计算过程,并给出算例进行验证。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效解决任务分配问题,并对任务分配方案进行定量评价。

Decomposition and allocation of combat tasks play important roles in process of command and decision.With the increasing complexity of the battlefield environment,methods of task allocation under certain environment are no longer able to meet the needs of the commander.In order to solve this problem,this paper analyzes the uncertainty existing in the process of decomposition,allocation and execution of tasks,and gives the formal description of each uncertainty with mathematical method.On this basis,it proposes a method of calculating the fitness based on probabilistic reasoning.This method can be used in intelligent algorithm to assess the scheme of task allocation in quantity.Finally,the example verifies the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed method.