食品通胀周期中城镇居民食品消费结构动态及福利损失研究

Study on the Urban Household's Food Consumption Structure Dynamic and the Welfare Losses during the Food Inflation Cycle

在食品通胀周期背景下,使用城镇住户抽样调查数据及AIDS-ECM模型对城镇居民食品消费结构动态及福利损失进行了研究。研究结果表明:首先,长期中分类食品价格上涨会增加自身消费支出,而抑制其它分类食品消费支出。短期中通过食品消费结构调整实现动态均衡,且收入层次越高调整速度越显著,食品结构越均衡;其次,长短期中食品质量越高其支出弹性越高,且高质量食品支出弹性随收入层次增加而增加。短期自价格弹性较长期弹性敏感,高质量食品自价格弹性在中、高收入层才显著;再次,城镇居民食品消费的福利具有周期性特征,粮食、肉禽类食品消费福利构成食品消费福利主体,通胀期的福利损失大于收缩期的福利获得,在长短期中食品消费福利变化随收入层次增加而减少。现阶段稳定核心食品价格,减小收入分层差距,是优化城镇居民食品消费结构,增加福利的两个重要途径。

This paper used urban household＇survey data and AIDS-ECM model to study the urban household＇s food consumption structure dynamic and the welfare losses based on the background of food inflation cycle.The results show that：First,in the long term,rising cassified food prices will increase their own spending,while suppressing their spending in other aspects.In the short term,the realization of dynamic equilibrium means adjusting the structure of food consumption,and the higher income level the faster adjustment.Secondly,the higher the quality of the food expenditure the higher elasticity is,and the high quality of food expenditure elasticity increases with the increase in income levels in the short and long-term.The short-term own price elasticity is more sensitive than long--term own price elasticity,and the own price elasticity of high quality food becomes significant,only in the middle and high income level.Finally,the welfare of food consumption of urban household has cyclical characteristics.The welfare of grain,meat and poultry food consumption constitutes the main welfare of all.The welfare losses in the period of inflation are greater than welfare gain in the period of deflation.Welfare changes decreases with the increase of income stratification during the long and short period.At this stage,the stable core food prices and reduced income stratification are two important ways to optimize the food consumption structure and increase the welfare.