基于控股股权的财务困境后续演变路径预警修正问题研究

Relationship Between Controlling Shareholders and Distress' Evolution Path Warning

控股股权状况对企业脱困具有重要意义。研究依据财务困境后续演变路径将困境公司归为两类——"价值型"困境好转公司和"垃圾型"困境恶化公司。通过构建和对比"财务预警模型"和"控股股权修正预警模型",探索困境公司脱困机理。研究结果表明:首先,要优化控股股权结构:适度提高控股股权集中度,有利于提高决策效率降低决策成本;法人控股有利提高市场竞争意识;通过提高控股股东直接资金流投入量,有利于降低控制权与现金流权的偏离度,促进控股股东与企业利益的协同。其次,要关注财务综合素质的提高:通过降低资产负债率、提高企业资产现金回收率、及时偿还到期债务、加速营运资金的周转、提高公司账面市值比率,稳定企业利益相关者投资信心,有利于企业顺利脱困。

This paper uses Logistic data analysis method to analysis the relationship between controlling shareholders and distress' evolution path warning. We found that: the second model is more accurate than the first model in the evolution path of financial distress warning. Measures to optimize the controlling ownership structure is important.Measures such as enhance ownership concentration,which is useful to improve the decision efficiency and reduce the cost. To reduce the degree of deviation of control right and cashflow right is useful to promote the interests alliance of controlling shareholders and firm. Secondly,attention should be paid to the the improvement of financial comprehensive ability. Distressed firms should lower rates of assets and liabilities,increase cash rate,accelerate the capital turnover,improve the value of book to market ratio. Its key points that firms in financial distress should optimize the ownership structure and improve the comprehensive financial ability.