中国的实际经济周期与税收政策效应

Real Business Cycles and Taxation Policy Effects in China

本文构建了财政税收的实际经济周期(RBC)模型,实证研究了中国宏观经济波动的周期特征及税收政策的经济效应。研究发现:(1)引入财政收支冲击的RBC模型能够解释70%以上中国经济波动的特征事实,政府支出冲击加剧中国实体经济波动,而税收冲击对经济波动的影响不显著。(2)降低劳动收入和资本收入的税率都能促进经济增长和带动资本和劳动的供给增加,降低劳动收入税率有利于促进居民消费增长,降低资本收入税率则起到抑制作用,调整劳动收入税率的政策效果更强。(3)资本收入税率与社会福利呈正相关和非对称性,劳动收入税率与社会福利呈负相关和非对称性,技术冲击和财政冲击的共同作用使得结构性税收调整政策的福利效应具有非对称性,两种税率的同向变动对社会福利具有放大作用,两者的反向变动对社会福利具有削弱作用。

Based on the RBC model with fiscal shocks, we studied the features of China economic fluctuations and the effects of taxation policy. The empirical results are as follows. Firstly, the RBC model with fiscal shocks is more reasonable for China economy, and fiscal expenditure shock may amplify economic fluctuation. Secondly, cutting the tax rates of capital and labor income induces economic growth and affects the household consumption in the opposite directions. The effect of labor income taxation is more obvious than capital income taxation. Thirdly, there are some asymmetric effects in the taxations of capital and labor income. Both of the rate changes in capital and labor income may strengthen or weaken the taxation effects through their nonlinear interactions.