中国货币政策和利率市场化研究——区分经济结构的均衡分析

Research on Chinese Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization——Based on Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Structure

本文弓入区分企业所有制性质的生产行为,构建出一个结构性货币政策的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了我国货币政策对不同所有制性质企业以及经济波动所产生的影响,并模拟了利率市场化前后的政策作用效果。研究发现,我国结构性的货币流向和利率体制对私人企业的工资和市场利率的影响远远大干对国有企业的影响,并明显加剧了我国经济的波动。若我国实施利率市场化改革,会造成名义经济变量的波动加大,但是真实经济变量的波动将会明显减小。

This paper setups a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model by introducing two different ownerships of enterprises in the production sector to analyze Chinese structural monetary policy, and simulates the interest rate liberalization＇s policy effects. The paper finds that structures of monetary flow and interest rate in China, which obviously create more economic fluctuations, take more responsibility for fluctuations of private enterprises＇ wage and market interest rates than these of state-owned enterprises＇. If China carried out interest rate liberalization reform by eliminating all discriminations of interest rate, the fluctuations of real economic variables would be obviously reduced even though the fluctuations of nominal price and money stock would increase.