我国城市旅游产业发展前路实证研究

本文在自主构建模型的基础上对我国大陆30个重点旅游城市的旅游业发展现状进行了系统分析。研究发现，均衡式旅游发展的整体效果要高于非均衡式旅游发展的整体效果。而且在这30个城市中，北京、沈阳、宁波、长沙和西安的旅游业发展较为均衡，无锡、杭州的旅游业也正在由非均衡式发展模式向均衡式发展模式转变。但是，济南、哈尔滨、呼和浩特、长春、兰州、拉萨等城市的旅游发展过于单一，导致其旅游业后续发展潜力不足，从而降低了其未来发展的可持续性。为了解决这一问题，这些城市应该在增加城市所在地区的区域旅游协调性、联动性方面作出进一步的努力。

This paper analyzes the development of the traveling industry in 30 major cities in China on the basis of self- established model. Research finds that equilibrium- developing cities acquire better results than unequibrium- developing cities. Amongthese 30 cities, Beijing, Shenyang, Ningbo, Changsha snd Xi＇ an belongs to the equilibrium - developing mode. And Wuxi as well as Hangzhou is on her way to developing traveling industry equally. However, Jinan, Haerbin, Huhehaote, Changchun and Lasa, whose traveling industry develops too unequally, have a dull future and probably cannot develop sustainably. In order to solve this problem, these cities should pay more attention to the harmony and linkage of its traveling industry＇ s development.