基于地区CGE模型的碳税效应研究——以上海为例

The Effects Analysis of Carbon Tax Based on CGE Model: Taking Shanghai as an Example

文章构建了动态可计算一般均衡模型。利用投入产出表等数据编制了相应的社会核算矩阵,标定模型形成仿真平台。通过设定不同碳税税率和税收收入使用方式,进行了相关模拟。结果表明,碳税能够抑制上海的能源消费,使得二氧化碳的排放量和单位GDP碳强度大幅度降低。在保持税收中性的情况下,征收碳税对经济会有一定负面作用,但有助于提高第三产业比例,优化产业结构,需要注意的是对交通运输及仓储业和炼焦业的负面影响较大。在碳税定价上,认为起征碳税设定在30 CNY/t元较合适,可在"十二五"期间择机开征,"十三五"期间缓慢提升碳税价格,于2020年左右达到50 CNY/t。

To estimate the effects of carbon tax, the paper constructed the dynamic computable general equilibrium model to form the simulation platform, while the social accounting matrix was prepared on the basis of Input-Output table to supply the data base. The policy scenarios were designed according to different tax prices and tax usages, and were stimulated through CGE model. The results indicated that the carbon tax could decrease the energy use in Shanghai, leading to significantly reduction of the carbon dioxide emission amount as well as the carbon intensity. Though the revenue-neutral carbon tax would drop the GDP, it could increase the proportion of tertiary industry and improve the industrial structure. And it should be noted that carbon tax would strongly hurt the transportation and warehousing industry as well as the coking industry. The paper pointed out that the initial carbon tax should be priced at 30 CNY/t, it may begin to collect at a proper time during the 12 th five-year plan period, and the carbon tax slowly should be raised to 50 CNY/t in 2020.