基于灰色关联模型的中国能源结构研究

China's Energy Structure Research Based on Grey Correlation Model

能源结构的合理化直接影响一国经济、能源、生态环境的和谐发展。基于对能源生产结构和消费结构的定性分析,利用我国2000年以来的能源时间序列数据,建立能源生产结构、能源消费结构、能源消费行业结构和生活能源消费结构的灰色关联模型,从生产侧与消费侧全面、系统地分析能源结构。结果表明,我国能源结构整体来说具有高碳化的特点,我国能源生产与消费仍然以化石能源为主,第二产业能源消费占比不合理,生活能源消费以液化石油气、煤炭能源为主;虽然清洁能源在能源结构中的比重较低,但是其生产与消费增速较快。

Energy structure rationalization directly influences the harmonious development of a country＇s economy, energy and ecological environment. Based on the qualitative analysis of the structure of energy production and consumption structure, using the energy time series data from 2000 in China, we build grey correlation model on energy production structure, energy consumption structure, energy consumption industry structure and residential energy consumption structure, and then we comprehensively and systematically analyze the energy structure from the production side and consumer side. The results show that the energy structure as a whole in our country has the characteristics of high carbide, energy production and consumption in our country are still dominated by fossil energy, the second industry energy consumption proportion is unreasonable, and residential energy consumption is dominated by liquefied petroleum gas and coal energy; Although the proportion of clean energy in energy structure is lower, but its production and consumption growth are faster.