基于生态因素约束的我国城镇人口空间格局预景

Scenarios on China's Urban Population Distribution Based on the Ecological Constraints

以"六普"分县人口数为基础,通过预景的研究方法,模拟无生态约束和有生态约束两种情景下,未来我国城镇人口的空间格局。认为到2032年左右,我国人口将达到最高峰,全国总人口大约14.7亿人。届时中国城镇化也将接近尾声,城镇化率约为70%,全国城镇总人口共约10.3亿,比2010年增加3.6亿。据模拟,2032年左右,无生态因素约束下,东部地区城镇人口增速更快,东部、中部、西部地区城镇人口占全国总城镇人口的比例分别为50.2%、28.7%、21.0%。生态因素约束下,城镇人口由西部、中部地区向东部地区进一步集聚,东部、中部、西部地区三个区域城镇人口比2010年分别增长64.9%、47.9%、36.7%;城镇人口占全国城镇总人口的比例分别为52.1%、27.5%、20.4%。研究结论可为促进我国城镇化空间分布与资源、生态、环境相适应、优化国土空间开发格局提供参考。

China is facing an unprecedented urbanization and severe challenges of sustainability and survival. This paper uses data of the sixth nationwide population census, establishes two distribution scenarios of China＇s future urban population. It forecasts that the total population of China will reach its summit around 2032 at 1.47 billion. By then the urbanization process will almost be completed with a growth of 0.36 billion urban population comparing with 2010. According to the simulation, without ecological constraints, the proportion of urban population of the eastern region, the central region and the western region will be as 50.2%, 28.7%, 21.0%. But under ecological constraints, the proportion will be 52.1%, 27.5%, 20.4% respectively, which means a stronger population aggregation in the eastern region. This study is expected to provide a scientifi c basis for the under-going urbanization and land use optimizing at the national scale.