突发事件快速评估模型

Emergency incidents rapid comprehensive assessment model

突发事件发生初期,进行突发事件的快速综合评估,有利于及时、准确地把握事件的态势,以满足应急决策的时效性要求.为解决突发事件数据量较大,数据更新较快时,过于复杂的运算过程和计算软件缺乏以及已有软件兼容性低而难以满足应急决策的时效性要求的问题,本文简化了Simos过程和PROMETHEEⅡ方法,构建了突发事件快速评估模型,即SSPPM(Simple Simos'Procedure and PROMETHEEⅡModel).为了验证新模型的有效性,本文选取了两个数据进行实验.实验结果表明,在对评估速度的要求大于对精度的要求的突发事件控制阶段,新模型能快速综合多位应急决策者的意见,快速获取权重,简化评估过程,提高突发事件综合评估效率.

In the early stage of emergency incidents, rapidly and comprehensively assessing the emergency incident is conducive to timely and accurately grasp the trend of the events and meet the timeliness requirements of emergency response. To solve the complicated calculation process and the lack of calculation software as well as the low compatibility of the existing software, a rapid comprehensive assessment model was established based on two revised algorithms, the Simple Simos Process and PROMETHEE II. Two experimental emergency datasets are used to verify the SSPPM. The experimental results show that the SSPPM （Simple Simos＇ Procedure and PROMETHEE II Model） can quickly acquire weights of criteria and get the result of assessment timely.