基于Weibull-Bayes协同物流网络资源规划进度偏差应急控制

Schedule variances emergency control for resource planning of collaborative logistics network based on Weibull-Bayes

协同物流网络资源规划进度偏差应急控制具有小样本、无先验信息的特点,采用多样本偏差数据统计方法或传统先验信息分析方法均无法解决其偏差出现概率分布构造与可靠性评估问题.为此,提出了Weibull-Bayes进度偏差应急控制模型,利用考虑信息差异的Bayes方法构造各阶段偏差出现概率的验前分布,利用挣值分析指数估计Weibull分布的形状参数.最后,算例分析结果表明该模型方法对应急控制资源规划进度偏差是有效的.

Abstract Schedule variances characteristics of small sample control for resource planning of size and no prior information. collaborative logistics network has the Either diverse variance data statistical methods or traditional prior information analysis methods are unable to resolve the result that those variances appear probability distribution structure and reliability evaluation problem. Therefore, the paper presents a Weibull-Bayes emergency control model of schedule variances, which uses Bayesian estimation to construct prior probability distribution of variance appeared, and uses earned value analysis （EVA） indices to estimate the Weibull distribution shape parameter. Finally, example analysis shows that the presented model is effective to predict and control resource planning schedule variances.