基于CMS模型下的中国棉花进口增长因素研究

Growth Factors of China's Cotton Import Based on CMS Model

运用CMS模型,利用1992—2012年时间序列相关数据,对中国棉花进口增长因素进行实证分析。研究发现:稳定阶段,竞争力效应和结构效应对中国棉花进口增长起推动作用,结构与竞争力交互效应起相反作用;增长阶段,竞争力效应、结构效应、结构与竞争力交互效应共同促进了中国棉花进口的增加;衰退阶段,结构效应拉动增长,竞争力效应和结构与竞争力交互效应共同抑制进口,并且效果明显大于结构效应;回升阶段,强势的竞争力效应、结构效应、结构与竞争力交互效应共同促进进口贸易。

Applying CMS model, using the time-series data from 1992 to 2012, empirical analysis on the growth factors of China＇s cotton import is made. The results show that, in the stable stage, competitive effect and structure effect promote the growth of cotton import of China, the interaction effect of structure and competitiveness is counterproductive; in the growth stage, the competitive effect, structure effect and interaction of structure and competitive jointly promote the cotton import of China; in the decline stage, the structure effect stimulate the growth of cotton import of China, while the competitive effect and the interaction effect of structure and competitive inhibited the cotton import of China, and significantly greater than the structure effect; in the recovery phase, the strong competitive effect, structure effect and interaction effect jointly promote the cotton import trade of China.