人口年龄结构与保险业发展的国际趋势——基于分位数回归的实证研究

The International Trend of Insurance Industry Development and Population Age Structure Based on Quantile Regression Exponential Research

采用2013年87个经济体的截面数据,通过分位数回归的方法研究了保险业发展的规律。实证研究发现老年人口比对寿险业的密度影响存在边际效应递减,而对寿险深度的影响存在边际效应递增;非寿险密度和深度分别在较低分位和中分位水平以下处受到人口年龄结构的影响均呈现出边际效应递减,而在中高分位水平上的影响并不显著。实证结果表明,中国在老龄化背景下将会迎来寿险业快速发展,但是寿险密度的增加会慢于寿险深度的增加,而非寿险并不会受益于老龄化背景,但会在经济发展过程中稳步提高。

By using the cross-section data from 87 economies in 2013, the study adopted the quantile regression method to examine the rules of development of the insurance industry. The empirical study revealed that the ratio of elderly population exerted a diminishing marginal effect on the life insurance density, but an increasing marginal effect on the insurance penetration;the ratio of old population had a diminishing marginal effect on both the density and penetration of nonlife insurance at the low-to-middle quartile, but had no obvious effect on either the density or penetration at the middle-to-high quartile. The findings of the study indicated that life insurance industry in China would be boosted by the aging population, with increase in the penetration faster than the increase in density;and that the nonlife insurance would maintain a steady increase in the process of economic development, without much benefit from the a^in~ pol3ulation.