基于DMSP-OLS灯光数据的广东省城市人口估算

Estimation of Urban Population in Guangdong Province Based on DMSP-OLS Lighting Data

使用DMSP/OLS近20年数据对广东省城市的人口规模进行估算.首先,对广东省的DMSP/OLS数据进行校正.以2000、2010年人口普查数据与灯光数据为样本,构建"灰度密度-人口密度"模型,估算广东21个地级市常住人口.该模型既充分考虑灰度阀值的设定对人口估算结果的影响,又考虑城市人口数量变化在灯光灰度总值和灯光覆盖面积这2个变量上的体现.由于使用灯光数据指标与人口数据指标的比值作为估算基础,各城市的估算函数参数均不同,符合各城市经济发展状况和人口分布特点.通过2005年全国1%人口抽样数据检验,21个地级市平均估算相对误差为3.69%,全省总常住人口估算相对误差为5.02%,证明该模型能有效地估算广东省各地级市的人口规模.与已有的人口统计数据获取途径相比,该文构建的模型比传统的人口统计方法增强了时效性,又比其他遥感估算方法节省了地物判读和解译的步骤,且估算误差更小.基于DMSP/OLS数据的城市人口估算对研究中国城市人口规模具有重要的应用价值.

A new model called Gray Density --Population Density is established based on the DMSP/OLS data of Guangdong province during 1992 to 2012 to estimate the population of 21 prefecture level cities in Guangdong. To calibrate the data of 20 years, a calibrating model is introduced. The model chose Hongkong as the calibration area. In order to establish the model, the 2000 and 2010 population census data is used as samples. For improving the estimation accuracy, this model fully considers the influence from grayscale threshold and two variable called grayscale and light cover, which reflect the change of the population in urban. Based on a ratio between population variable and light data variable, the fuctions in this model to estimate different city＇s population are different, conforming to the urban economic development population distribution characteristics. Compared to the data of sample survey of populaition in 2005, the estimation result shows that relative error of reckoning the population of 21 cities is 3.69% and the province＇s total permanent population estimation error is 5.02%, which proves that this model can effectively estimate the population size of each city in Guangdong. Compared with the existing way to obtain the population data, this new model is more timely than the traditional statistical method. Different from other remote sensing method, this model can help to diminish the estimation error without the step of features interpretation or interpreting. The method of estimating the urban population based on DMSP/OLS data has significant application value in studying the population problems of China.