张家港市年径流量变化及其对气候变化的响应分析

Analysis of Annual Runoff Variation in Zhangjiagang City and Its Response for Climate Variation

为提高气候变化环境下水资源的应对能力,根据张家港市1960—2012年年径流量、年降水量和年均气温资料,采用线性倾向分析法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法分析了年尺度下的径流量、降水量、气温的变化规律,从趋势性和突变性的角度分析了年径流量对年降水量和年均气温的响应规律.结果表明:张家港市年径流量和年降水量呈不显著增加趋势,年均气温呈明显增加趋势;降水量是影响张家港市径流量的最主要的因子,年降水量与年径流量相关系数达到0.848,通过了信度99%的显著性水平的检验,年降水量增加则年径流量显著增加;年均气温与年径流量存在相关性,年均气温升高则年径流量减少,但趋势不显著;相对于年均气温,年降水量突变对年径流量突变作用更为明显,年径流量突变与年降水量突变的年份均为1988年.

To improve the ability of water resources to cope with climate change,according to annual runoff,precipitation,annual average temperature in Zhangjiagang City from 1960 to 2012,the variation regulations of runoff,precipitation,air temperature were analyzed using linear trend analytical method in year scale,moving average method,Mann-Kendall method and moving t test,the response regulations of annual runoff to annual average temperature were analyzed from the aspects of trend and abrupt change. Results show that in Zhangjiagang City,annual runoff and precipitation are a slight increasing trend,annual average temperature is a significant increasing trend,precipitation is the main impact factor for annual runoff of Zhangjiagang City,the correlation coefficient between annual precipitation and annual runoff reaches 0. 848,and passes significance level test with 99% confidence degree,and the annual runoff significantly increases with the increase of the annual precipitation,the correlation exists between the annual average temperature and the annual runoff,the annual runoff decreases with the increase of the annual average temperature,but the trend is not significant,the abrupt change of the annual precipitation has greater effects on that of the annual runoff than that of the annual average temperature,the year of abrupt change of the annual runoff and precipitation is 1988.