主体偏好视角下的应急策略分步评价方法

Evaluate the Emergency Strategy Step by Step from the Perspective of Subjective Preference

鉴于决策主体的主观偏好对策略选择的重要影响,设计主体偏好视角下面向复用的应急策略评价指标体系,并采用分步评价法对策略进行具体评价。首先,从定性的角度基于评价主体自身对客观条件的判断进行限制条件的评价;其次,通过主体对损失、成本、形象、时间性和风险指标重要程度的判断,利用相对比较法确定主体的主观偏好排序,作为策略执行效果指标加权的依据;再次,计算策略执行效果各项指标的加权得分,根据得分推荐策略。

According to the importance of valuator＇s preference,this paper designs an indicator system involving objective condition,subjective preference and the result to evaluate the emergency strategy.It implements the evaluation step by step.First,evaluate the restrictive condition by the valuator qualitatively.Then,evaluate the importance of loss,cost,public sentiment,time and risk to the valuator to weigh the result indicator.At last,calculate the weighted score of result indicators and recommend the strategy.