基于贝叶斯的服务通告改装经济性决策方法

An Economic Decision Approach for Service Bulletin Modification Based on Bayes

改装类服务通告的经济性决策是航空维修企业工程人员的一项重要工作内容。设计了改装类服务通告经济性决策程序;通过服务通告对飞机运营的经济性影响分析构建了成本分解结构,并对不同的成本项目建立了成本评估模型;针对模型的成本影响参数MTBUR和MTBF的估计采用了贝叶斯方法以解决小样本问题;通过投资回收期方法获得评价指标以决定是否进行服务通告改装投资。最后通过实例对决策方法的应用进行说明。此方法能够为航空企业的维修改装决策提供有效的技术支持。

In aviation corporations, the economy decision for Service Bulletin with modification requirement plays an important part in engineers＇ daily work. To solving this problem, a modification evaluation decision-making process was designed and the investment cost breakdown structure with models of computing for its different cost items was proposed. For the constraint of small sample of failure data, MTBUR and MTBF as cost computing model parameters were estimated with the bayes method. Finally, indicator presented by application of payback period technique illustrated the feasibility of the investment on Service Bulletin. Example showed that the application of this approach would provide effective support for maintenance modification decision analysis.