基于VAR模型下的FDI对中国住房价格影响的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Impacts of FDI on Housing Price in China Based on VAR Model

选取2002—2012年的中国外商直接投资(FDI)与住房价格相关数据,在利用单位根检验对变量进行平稳性检验的基础上,建立VAR模型,运用协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验以及使用脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行分析,对FDI与住房价格之间的关系进行深入研究。结果表明,在样本区间内,这两者之间存在着长期均衡关系,FDI对住房价格存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,FDI对住房价格的变动具有正向且显著地影响。最后,根据以上结果,针对FDI在我国房地产市场上如何更好地发挥积极作用给出了相应的政策建议。

By selecting the foreign direct investment（FDI）and housing price data（2002-2012）in China,using the unit root test to make the stationary test of the variables,establishing VAR model,using co-integration test,error correction model,Granger causality test,the impulse response function and variance decomposition to make analysis,the relationship between FDI and housing price are deeply studied.The results show that in the sample interval,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and housing price;there is a one-way Granger causality between FDI and housing price;FDI has a positive and significant impact on the housing price.Finally,according to the above results,some corresponding policy recommendations on FDI how to play apositive role better in real estate market in China are put forward.