乌克兰危机对哈萨克斯坦的影响评估

A Preliminary Study on the Impacts of the Ukrainian Crisis on Kazakhstan

乌克兰危机不仅导致俄罗斯与西方之间的关系严重恶化,而且还波及到与俄关系密切的国家,如哈萨克斯坦。本文评估了乌克兰危机对哈政治、经济与安全方面所产生的影响。就政治方面的影响而言,西方和哈萨克斯坦关心的是哈北部俄罗斯族人口众多的地区是否会并入俄罗斯。鉴于目前哈俄关系比较密切以及哈族群政策得当,这种可能性较小。在经济方面,乌俄关系的恶化、西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁以及乌克兰对哈支持俄罗斯在克里米亚问题上的立场有所不满,导致哈萨克斯坦的经济发展面临困难。安全方面,不少哈萨克斯坦公民进入乌克兰参加亲俄武装的战斗,从长远来看很有可能增加哈面临的安全风险。正因意识到乌克兰危机与自身存在紧密联系,哈在乌克兰危机中的立场一直较为谨慎。

The Ukrainian crisis not only led to the deterioration of relation between Russia and the West,but also had impacts on those countries that have close ties with Russia,such as Kazakhstan.This paper assesses the impacts of the Ukrainian crisis on Kazakhstan's political,economic and security situations.In terms of political impact,the concerns of the West and Kazakhstan are whether Kazakhstan's northern regions where many Russians reside would be incorporated into Russia.Given the close relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia and the ethnic policy of Kazakhstan,this is unlikely to happen.In the aspect of economic situations,the deteriorated relationship between Ukraine and Russia,western sanctions against Russia and the Ukraine dissatisfaction of Kazakhstan supporting Russia on the Crimean issue,brought difficulty for Kazakhstan's economic development.In the aspect of security situation,many Kazakhstan citizens illegally crossed border into Ukraine and joined pro-Russian army in fighting with the Ukrainian authorities.This is likely to increase the security risks of Kazakhstan in the long run.